500mb Charts current

500mb Charts current
The mid level of the atmosphere is a key component to weather forecasting

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Southern New England Forecast

Ok, I can't hold on any longer, here is my first forecast:

The next several days will belong to a large cutoff extratropical cyclone (surface low) that has been meandering off the US East Coast the last several days.  We are within a pattern called the omega blocking pattern where there are two troughs on either side of a central US ridge.  With the 500mb chart in mind, models begin to break down this block as the large storm exits out into the central atlantic Ocean where SNE weather begins to resemble rebounding temperatures and a seasonable feel to the air.  This is in large part do to a large western/central US trough that will continue to build into this region of the country as we are admist a large -PNA/+NAO pattern in which we have troughing over the western US and ridging over the central/eastern US where the rebound in our temperatures will begin as southwest flow materializes over the next 48 hours and through the weekend.  Next week resembles a tricky forecast.  Models are in large disagreements with the overall pattern, with the 00z EURO more amplified and stronger with the surface low over the Great Lakes, and the 00z GFS more progressive and weaker with the surface low over the Great Lakes.  Ridging will be present at the surface over the western Atlantic Ocean and this will the culprit for the rebounding temperatures over the weekend as surface flow becomes southerly and/or southwesterly as this system slides a cold front eastward.  The air mass behind this cold front is still within disagreement in the model consensus.  Right now it is useless to forecast beyond this and therefore will write a new update when the 00z models come in.

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