500mb Charts current

500mb Charts current
The mid level of the atmosphere is a key component to weather forecasting

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Omega Block Breaking Down, Cold Air Breaks for New England next weekend!

After yesterday's discussion, the omega blocking pattern continues to move eastward and break down as the large ocean storm that has recently been battering the region is moving seaward quickly now and will continue to allow drying and a warm air trend to begin today and throughout early next week.  Temperatures should stay in the upper 40s/lower 50s for the foreseeable future.  The next chance for a major weather maker is a Great Lakes Low Pressure center that will begin to affect the area next week.  Heavy rain looks to be the main impact as the cold front approaches.  Models are still at odds with one another.  00z EURO breaks down the low pressure center east of Cape Cod, MA by 600 miles or so the slowest with the GFS ensembles quicker.  Models agree on the magnitude of the +EPO in place, which leads to a -PNA/+NAO interaction as ridging heights build over the eastern US, and heights crash over the western US.  Cold air will be found over this region of the country where snow will likely fall on the northwest side of the Great Lakes Low Pressure system.  Heavy snow will fall across the Rockies and into the Central Plains sometime this weekend, as the large low pressure system moves northeastward.  This low will swing a cold front through the region sometime Wednesday through Thursday.  Strong Cold Air Advection will take place as the front moves through the region allowing cold air to infiltrate the region bringing highs down into the mid to upper 30s for the following weekend.  Right now models cannot be trusted with the details and are changing run to run.  There is no model run to run consistency and confidence beyond Next Monday is low.  Next update will be tomorrow.

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