00z GFS update

00z GFS came in further south and more amplified with the northern jet stream disturbance which is good news if one wants a snowstorm in SNE.  Problem is that the surface temperatures warm up because the 850mb and 700mb level circulations move right overhead leading to an initial warm up in temperatures with a south to southeasterly surface flow ahead of the circulation.  Surface thicknesses are really good.  We will end up with snow with verbatim on the 00z GFS.  Good news considering that initially the setup looks unfavorable for snowfall.  However cooler air invades the region as the surface low deepens and heads sea-ward.  The blocking over Greenland takes place and gives SNE a good 24 hours of precipitation.  We just need the surface to 700mb circulations to move in tandem to the south of the region.  We also need the initial clipper low to move further to the south.  It should not be hard given the nature of the pseudo +PNA ridging that coincides with this period.  Again this is the system for 18-19th of November.