00z/06z model update

Updated forecast for the region:

Highs the next several days: today into Wednesday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s as return flow around a large surface high will be out of the south or southwest, before a major storm system moves to the west of the region.  This surface low will bring through a cold front producing heavy rain and maybe embedded thunder WED night into THUR morning.  This system is forecasted by the models to be further west than originally expected, and this will deter any downstream ridging over Atlantic Canada precluding any potential development of the late week clipper.  Cold air will move through the region next weekend with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, with lows in the mid 30s.  This cold air will be short lived as return flow out ahead of a surface clipper will come out of the south and southwest and return to normal temperatures will ensue, normals for this time of year are 48/35.  Thanksgiving week looks to start off nice, with a cold air mass in place as a frontal passage just days before will allow this cold air out of the central US to filter into the region.  With +EPO/-PNA/-NAO pattern regime still in place any storms should be pushed out to sea.  We need to start seeing a +PNA signal before any storm period can be trusted for snow and right now that does not look like the case.  I will have more tomorrow.  Heavy rain on WED/THUR could bring short lived street flooding.